STARDUST OPENING LINE MOVES 9-7

[tuleythetout]

Here are the NFL opening-line moves for Week 2 at the Stardust sports book in Las Vegas for next weekend’s games (college line moves are in the College forum). Bettors sign up to get the first crack at the Stardust openers, and a “lottery” in held to determine the order the bettors must line up at one of three windows at 5:30 p.m. PDT.
It should be noted that with offshore books putting up numbers before Las Vegas, a lot of the early betting at the Stardust comes from differentiations from the offshore numbers and not because of true opinions on a game.
There are not meant as a prediction. Last year, the college line moves were 109-116 (48.4 percent) against the spread, while NFL line moves were 60-51 (54.1 percent).
But the feeling here is that this information can still be useful to many bettors. By seeing which direction the line has moved, a bettor can decide whether they should bet ASAP if they’re planning to follow the money, or if they should wait to see if they feel they want to wait for a better number and go against the move.
All in all, it’s just another handicapping tool. Use it the way you see fit.


TOOK MONEY OPEN BET TO OPPONENT
Browns +3 (-120) +2.5 RAVENS
JAGUARS +3 +2.5 Bills
CHIEFS -3 -3.5 Steelers
Seahawks -4 -4.5 CARDINALS
Bears +8.5 +7.5 VIKINGS
GIANTS (Mon.) -7 -7.5 Cowboys
Browns-Ravens over 40 41
Bills-Jaguars over 42 43

Home team in CAPS

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Thanks Tuley, I like seeing the Stardust openers.

 

[tuleythetout]

Here is the story that ran with the above chart in Wednesday's editions of Daily Racing Form (hmmm, wonder if I can sue myself for plagiarism since I lifted some of my comments above

:


By DAVE TULEY
The accompanying chart shows the opening line moves after the Stardust posted its opening football odds Sunday for the football games this coming weekend.
Bettors sign up to get the first crack at the Stardust openers, and a lottery is held to determine the order the bettors must line up at one of three windows at 5:30 p.m.

It should be noted that with offshore books putting up numbers before Las Vegas, a lot of the early betting at the Stardust is due to differences between the Stardust and the offshore numbers (bettors trying to set up middles in which they can cash both sides) and not because of true opinions on a game.

But this information can still be useful to many bettors. By seeing which direction the line has moved (it's more likely to continue in that direction than to do an about-face), bettors can decide whether they should bet right away if they're planning to take the same side, or if they should wait for a better number and go against the move.

These are not meant to be viewed as predictions. Last year, the early line moves (from the bettors' point of view) went a barely profitable 60-51 (54 percent) against the spread while the college line moves were 109-116 (48 percent). When then-sports book director Joe Lupo was asked about how the Stardust was doing against the early bettors, he said, "I can't imagine any other sports book having a better college football season than us. Our numbers have proven to be sharper this season."

That's another way these line moves can be viewed: If you think the Stardust will continue to post sharp college numbers this year and that the line moves will continue to struggle, it can put you on some additional winners. If you think the offshore books (primarily Olympic and CRIS) do a better job and that bettors will be right more often than not in betting the Stardust openers toward those lines, then you would want to follow the money.

The Stardust won the first round last week. When the Stardust college openers were put up a week ago Sunday, the line moves went 4-6 against the spread. The funny thing is that all the underdogs that were backed (Colorado State, which was actually bet from a 2 1/2-point dog to a 1 1/2-point favorite vs. California; Northwestern vs. Air Force; UCLA vs. Colorado; and Middle Tennessee State vs. Georgia) were all winning sides while the six favorites (Ohio State, North Carolina State, Arkansas, UNLV, Southern Cal, UNLV, and Nebraska) all failed to cover.

All in all, it's just another handicapping tool. Use it the way you see fit.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/49615.html